What a new season does to cutoffs
A new season changes the map, the loot and often the way the game is played – and with them, how many points the same placement is worth in practice. The first cups of a season are where last season's cutoffs are least reliable. Here is how much they moved at each recent change, measured on the same cups either side of it.
The recent changes of season
For each change of season, the table compares the same cups, in the same region and format, in their last editions of the old season and their first editions of the new one, and gives the median move of the threshold in three bands of rank, as the forecast applies it.
| New season | Began | Ranks 1–100 | 101–500 | Deeper | Readings compared |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 21 August 2026 | +3% | +9% | +10% | 680 |
| 41 | 7 June 2026 | ±0% | ±0% | −1% | 1,009 |
| 40 | 20 March 2026 | +6% | +8% | +8% | 1,372 |
| 39 | 1 December 2025 | −11% | −15% | −18% | 214 |
| 38 | 4 November 2025 | +9% | +16% | +11% | 307 |
| 37 | 8 August 2025 | −1% | −3% | −6% | 904 |
| 36 | 10 June 2025 | ±0% | −3% | −1% | 266 |
| 35 | 3 May 2025 | +35% | +31% | +15% | 177 |
| 34 | 25 February 2025 | −1% | −1% | ±0% | 767 |
Median change of the threshold between a cup's last edition of the old season and its first of the new one, same region, same format, shrunk towards zero when few readings back it. "Readings compared" counts the readings the three bands rest on: one per rank read in both editions.
What the numbers say
- There is no rule of direction. Some seasons lift every cup, others lower them; one change moved the top by more than a third, another left it where it was. A season's patch notes do not say which it will be.
- The deep ranks usually move more. When a season shifts thresholds, the move is generally larger past rank 100 than at the top – in most of the changes above, not all of them.
- The move is common to all cups. Within a season change, most cups move together, which is why the first cups of a new season tell a lot about the next ones.
How the forecast handles a new season
A forecast built on last season's edition of a cup is moved by what the new season's first cups have shown at that band of rank: the median move over the cups already played, shrunk towards zero while there are only a few of them, so two early cups do not decide the whole season. The range widens by what the move leaves unexplained.
Before the first cups of a season have finished, nothing can say which way it will go: the forecast then reads last season's edition as it was, with a wider range, and it says on the page that the edition it reads is from the previous season. The first weekend is the least predictable of the season; by the end of the first week the move is measured.
What to do in the first week
- Read the range, not the middle. The first cups of a season can land anywhere in it, and the range is wide on purpose.
- Watch the first results. The first finished cups of the season, in any region, are the best early signal: the forecast picks them up within a day of their end.
- Use the live forecast. Mid-session, the board itself says where this season's cup is heading, whatever last season said; see how the cutoff moves during a cup.
Updated 3 October 2026